0->1 Product Bets Series

What to build, what not to build, and how to know the difference.

Refusing to Choose is the Most Expensive Mistake You Can Make in a 0➞1 Build
February 2, 2026
Refusing to choose is far more dangerous than moving slowly. If you haven't explicitly ranked your project sliders, the universe will rank them for you.
You’re Not Being Objective Anymore — And That’s When Startups Get Expensive
January 26, 2026
You’ve done the thinking. You have a thesis. The model might work. So the urge to build kicks in. But this is the moment founders lose objectivity — when sunk cost, identity, and optimism start distorting signals. Without clear failure criteria, MVPs expand, evidence gets reinterpreted, and money burns while confidence stays high. The real risk isn’t quitting too early. It’s continuing too long.
Early Traction Can Hide a Broken Business Model
January 19, 2026
Early traction answers one question well: does anyone care? It answers a much harder one very poorly: does this work as a business? This piece examines why teams defer unit economics, how early momentum masks structural risk, and why waiting to confront viability is one of the most expensive mistakes a startup can make.
Customer Conversations Are Not Validation
January 12, 2026
Early customer conversations can be useful — but they’re often mistaken for validation. When anecdotes replace evidence, teams move faster with more confidence, not less risk. This post explains why that’s dangerous, how it quietly distorts early product decisions, and what “validation” actually has to do at this stage.
You Don’t Have a Product Strategy — You Have a Guess
January 5, 2026
Early-stage teams often mistake motion for clarity. When a product thesis isn’t defensible, every downstream decision becomes noisier, slower, and more expensive than it needs to be.